Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
